Polymarket French Whale Theo Trump Bet event

Event · PageRank 0.0000

Overview

The "French whale" refers to a pseudonymous Polymarket trader known as Théo (also using the handle Fredi9999) who placed very large bets on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, spread across roughly 11 linked accounts. His positions covered the presidency, the popular vote, and swing states including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and he has said he acted on "neighbour polls" that asked respondents who the people around them would vote for, later commissioning his own polling to confirm the signal. Initial tallies put his profit near $48 million, later reporting put it at about $78.7 million, and blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis subsequently estimated more than $85 million. The episode drew regulatory attention in France, where authorities weighed whether Polymarket fell under national gambling law.

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Frequently asked questions

Who was the Polymarket "French whale"?

A pseudonymous French trader known as Théo, who also used the account name Fredi9999. Reporting tied as many as 11 Polymarket accounts to the same trader.

How much did the French whale make on the 2024 election?

Estimates rose over time. Early tallies were around $48 million, later reporting put net profit at about $78.7 million, and Chainalysis subsequently estimated more than $85 million.

What did he bet on, and did it cause regulatory problems?

He bet on a Trump victory, on Trump winning the popular vote, and on the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The size of the win coincided with French authorities examining whether Polymarket should be banned under the country's gambling laws.