Distribution Markets paper
Overview
"Distribution Markets" is a research paper published by the crypto investment firm Paradigm in December 2024. It proposes a new type of prediction market for questions with continuous rather than discrete outcomes, letting traders express a full probability distribution across an infinite range of possible values instead of choosing between preset buckets. The motivating example is a question such as when a particular product will be released, where conventional markets force traders into coarse options like "Q2 2025" or "2026." The design is discussed alongside Paradigm's other market-design research as part of a broader effort to extend prediction markets beyond binary outcomes.
Within the DeFi Intel graph, Distribution Markets connects to 2 tracked entities, most strongly to Paradigm Research, Dave White.
Relations
Top connections in the DeFi Intel knowledge graph (confidence-weighted, 2 of 2 total).
| Relation | Connected entity | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
published_in | Paradigm Research | 85% |
authored | Dave White | 85% |
Frequently asked questions
Who published the Distribution Markets paper and when?
It was published by Paradigm in December 2024, at paradigm.xyz.
What problem does it address?
Conventional prediction markets only let participants express probabilities over discrete outcomes, while many real-world questions have continuous outcomes.
What does a distribution market let a trader do?
It lets a trader express how likely they think each possible value is across the whole continuous range of outcomes, rather than picking from preset options.
Sources
Facts on this page were verified against the following sources.