Traders are already placing leveraged bets on Anthropic’s IPO using crypto contracts

Crypto exchange OKX has launched perpetual futures that let European traders bet on the implied valuations of AI firms OpenAI and Anthropic with up to 10‑times leverage. The Pre‑IPO X‑Perps, announced on September 10, 2026, provide synthetic exposure without ownership, voting rights or any claim on future shares. OKX Europe CEO Erald Ghoos said the products respond to growing demand for round‑the‑clock equity‑linked derivatives in Europe.

Background

Synthetic exposure to private‑company valuations has been emerging across crypto platforms as retail investors seek access to high‑profile tech firms that remain unlisted. Hyperliquid, Binance and other exchanges have already offered perpetual futures tied to OpenAI and Anthropic, while tokenized stock projects have attempted to fractionalise private equity. Regulatory frameworks such as the EU’s MiCA regime have recently transitioned, prompting exchanges to package these products under licences like the Malta Financial Services Authority’s Investment Services Act. Traditional private‑market routes—funding rounds or restricted secondary trades—exclude most retail participants, creating a niche that crypto derivatives aim to fill. However, the contracts differ from tokenised equity: they track an index maintained by the exchange, not a public order book, and carry no shareholder rights. The market has seen a surge in volume for European X‑Perps, with OKX reporting a fourfold increase since July, though raw numbers were not disclosed. Competing venues such as ThinkMarkets, Pepperstone, Bitget and STARTRADER have also introduced cash‑settled CFDs and perpetuals on Anthropic, often quoting valuation points that diverge from the latest private‑round figures.

What happened

OKX announced on September 10, 2026 that it would make its Pre‑IPO X‑Perps available to European users, allowing long or short positions on the implied valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic with leverage up to ten times (Source 1). The exchange described the contracts as perpetual‑style derivatives that track an internal index rather than a public order book, and warned that prices may diverge materially from private‑round valuations or any eventual IPO price (Source 1). Erald Ghoos, CEO of OKX Europe, said the launch was intended to meet growing appetite for derivative products in Europe (Source 1). The products confer no ownership stake, voting rights or claim on future shares, and an IPO may be delayed, cancelled or never occur (Source 1). OKX Europe Markets Ltd. operates under a licence from the Malta Financial Services Authority (Source 5). Around the same time, other crypto venues have been offering similar exposure: Hyperliquid’s HIP‑3 mechanism, Binance’s pre‑IPO perpetuals, and Bitget’s Anthropic perpetual with up to 20‑times leverage (Source 4). ThinkMarkets and Pepperstone have introduced cash‑settled CFDs that track either market‑cap expectations or opening share price estimates for Anthropic (Source 4). The market for these contracts has expanded, with OKX reporting that overall European X‑Perps volume has quadrupled since the MiCA transition period ended in July, though the figure covers all X‑Perps, not just the new pre‑IPO contracts (Source 1). A separate internal analysis dated September 4 found that 49.6% of Stock X‑Perps volume over the preceding eight weeks traded outside US cash trading hours (Source 1). The contracts can be opened and closed at any time, and some tokenised stock tokens can be withdrawn to self‑custody wallets (Source 1). Regulatory authorization for the specific contracts was not independently verified (Source 1).

Market impact

OKX’s launch adds two new perpetual futures to its European X‑Perps lineup, each offering up to ten‑times leverage. The exchange said overall European X‑Perps volume has quadrupled since July, though it did not publish absolute volume numbers (Source 1). An internal analysis showed that 49.6% of Stock X‑Perps volume in the eight weeks prior to September 4 traded outside US cash trading hours, indicating strong demand for round‑the‑clock access (Source 1). Across the broader market, ThinkMarkets reported that open Anthropic contracts across more than a dozen venues were worth $134 million (Source 4). Binance and Hyperliquid perpetuals have recently implied Anthropic valuations of roughly $1.93 trillion and $1.41 trillion respectively, compared with the company’s latest Series H round valuation of $965 billion (Source 5). Bitget’s Anthropic perpetual offered leverage of up to 20 times (Source 4). The proliferation of these contracts coincides with the end of the MiCA transition period, which appears to have spurred a surge in derivative trading activity in Europe (Source 1).

Why it matters

The introduction of leveraged pre‑IPO contracts on Anthropic and OpenAI gives retail traders synthetic exposure to private‑company valuations that were previously limited to institutional investors. Because the contracts are derivatives without equity rights, they create a market where price discovery is driven by trader sentiment rather than actual cap‑table data, potentially leading to significant valuation drift (Source 5). The products also test the boundaries of EU regulatory regimes such as MiCA, as they are packaged under a Maltese licence but may be treated as CFDs subject to retail leverage caps by ESMA (Source 4). The rapid expansion of volume and the involvement of multiple venues suggest a growing appetite for continuous, 24/7 trading on private‑company outcomes, which could pressure traditional brokerage models and influence how future IPOs are priced. However, the lack of ownership rights and the possibility of IPO delays or cancellations mean that participants face heightened risk, underscoring the need for clear disclosures and regulatory oversight (Source 1).